Risk-on
QQQ is no more than 10% below its 52-week high
SPY
U.S. large-cap stocks
50%
QQQ
Nasdaq-100 stocks
50%
Strategy 01
Simulation onlyWeekly QQQ Drawdown Switch
A weekly ETF risk switch based on QQQ's distance from its 52-week high: 50% SPY / 50% QQQ when risk-on, and 34% SPY / 33% GLD / 33% SHY when risk-off.
This is an educational paper portfolio, not investment advice or a record of real trades. Past or simulated results do not guarantee future returns.
Current status
Risk-on
Latest completed weekly review recorded after Friday's close: August 28, 2026.
- Total portfolio
- $109,606
- Review date
- August 28, 2026
- QQQ close
- $716.43
- Distance to high
- -3.88%
Portfolio tool
Rebalance calculator
Enter the shares you currently hold. The calculator uses the latest completed weekly close and the current model allocation to estimate your target shares and trade differences.
Price snapshot: Aug 28, 2026
$769.35
$716.43
$408.89
$81.89
Total portfolio value
$0
| ETF | Close price | Holding value | Target weight | Target shares | Estimated adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.35 | $0 | 50% | 0.00 | Hold 0.00 |
| QQQ | $716.43 | $0 | 50% | 0.00 | Hold 0.00 |
| GLD | $408.89 | $0 | 0% | 0.00 | Hold 0.00 |
| SHY | $81.89 | $0 | 0% | 0.00 | Hold 0.00 |
Illustrative only. Target shares use the shown closing prices and exclude slippage, spread, commissions, taxes, and fractional-share restrictions.
Historical record
Weekly backtests
The same model was replayed week by week using information available at each Friday close. Choose a year to inspect every decision.
Model return
+9.61%
Ending value
$109,606
SPY buy and hold
+13.10%
50/50 SPY + QQQ
+15.05%
Rebalances
3
Total slippage
$345
2026 Weekly journal
| Review date | QQQ close | Distance to High | Total Portfolio | Regime | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | $613 | -3.25% | $100,000 | Risk-on | Rebalanced (traded Jan 2, 2026, -$100) |
| Jan 2, 2026 | $612 | -3.44% | $99,900 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Jan 9, 2026 | $625 | -1.31% | $101,799 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Jan 16, 2026 | $620 | -2.16% | $101,184 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Jan 23, 2026 | $621 | -1.93% | $101,125 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Jan 30, 2026 | $620 | -2.06% | $101,256 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Feb 6, 2026 | $608 | -3.98% | $100,162 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Feb 13, 2026 | $601 | -5.20% | $98,884 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Feb 20, 2026 | $607 | -4.12% | $100,007 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Feb 27, 2026 | $606 | -4.36% | $99,631 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Mar 6, 2026 | $598 | -5.54% | $98,022 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Mar 13, 2026 | $592 | -6.49% | $96,793 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Mar 20, 2026 | $581 | -8.33% | $94,969 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Mar 27, 2026 | $562 | -11.29% | $92,379 | Risk-off | Rebalanced (traded Mar 30, 2026, -$121) |
| Apr 10, 2026 | $610 | -3.64% | $95,800 | Risk-on | Rebalanced (traded Apr 13, 2026, -$124) |
| Apr 17, 2026 | $648 | 0.00% | $100,020 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Apr 24, 2026 | $663 | 0.00% | $101,453 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| May 1, 2026 | $673 | 0.00% | $102,719 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| May 8, 2026 | $710 | 0.00% | $106,785 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| May 15, 2026 | $708 | -1.51% | $106,714 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| May 22, 2026 | $717 | -0.31% | $107,835 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| May 29, 2026 | $738 | 0.00% | $110,206 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Jun 5, 2026 | $704 | -5.51% | $106,301 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Jun 12, 2026 | $721 | -3.33% | $107,859 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Jun 26, 2026 | $707 | -5.21% | $106,007 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Jul 10, 2026 | $726 | -2.66% | $109,303 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Jul 17, 2026 | $695 | -6.71% | $106,139 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Jul 24, 2026 | $684 | -8.20% | $104,971 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Jul 31, 2026 | $688 | -7.69% | $105,831 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Aug 7, 2026 | $723 | -2.99% | $110,393 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Aug 14, 2026 | $731 | -1.91% | $111,234 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Aug 21, 2026 | $713 | -4.28% | $109,119 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
| Aug 28, 2026 | $716 | -3.88% | $109,606 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
Historical adjusted-close data snapshot: Yahoo Finance chart API historical adjusted-close data. Friday close signal, next trading-session close execution, 252-session lookback, and 0.10% one-way slippage. Results are a historical simulation, not a recommendation.
The two portfolios
The signal chooses one of two fully invested target allocations. It does not forecast the cause or duration of a decline.
Risk-off
QQQ is more than 10% below its 52-week high
SPY
U.S. large-cap stocks
34%
GLD
Gold
33%
SHY
1-3 year U.S. Treasuries
33%
The original 33% / 33% / 33% description totals 99%. This journal assigns the spare 1% to SPY so the model remains 100% invested.
Rules of record
Measure the signal
After each Friday close, divide QQQ's adjusted close by its highest adjusted daily close during the latest 252 trading sessions. Distance from high = (current close / 52-week high - 1) x 100.
Choose the regime
A distance of -10.00% or better is risk-on. A distance below -10.00% is risk-off. The same rule is used every week without an opinion override.
Trade at the next session
When the regime changes, rebalance at the next trading session's closing price. If the regime is unchanged, rebalance only when a holding differs from target by more than 5 percentage points.
Charge realistic friction
Deduct 0.10% from every dollar bought or sold. Dividends are reinvested through adjusted prices. Taxes and commissions are excluded because this is modeled as an IRA.
Weekly decision journal
Each review will preserve the data available that day, the formula result, the chosen allocation, and any simulated orders. Entries will not be rewritten using hindsight.
| Review date | QQQ close | Distance to High | Total Portfolio | Regime | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | $716.43 | -3.88% | $109,606 | Risk-on | Held allocation |
What gets documented each week
- Data date and source
- QQQ adjusted close and 252-session high
- Calculated distance and resulting regime
- Portfolio value before trading
- Target shares, simulated orders, and slippage
- Ending holdings, cash rounding, and cumulative return
How the experiment will be judged
The model is useful only if its full experience is measured. The journal will compare it with buy-and-hold SPY and a 50/50 SPY-QQQ benchmark, while tracking total return, maximum drawdown, volatility, turnover, number of regime changes, and time spent risk-off.
Known limitations
- A single 10% threshold can switch repeatedly in a choppy market.
- QQQ is also held in the risk-on portfolio, so the signal and exposure are linked.
- Gold and short Treasuries may not protect equally in every kind of selloff.
- A close-based paper fill cannot reproduce spreads, taxes, tracking error, or intraday execution.
- The model has no valuation, inflation, credit, or earnings input; simplicity is both its strength and its constraint.
Update point: edit the journal entries in lib/paper-trade-content.ts after each weekly review.