Risk-on
Both QQQ and SPY are above their 200-day averages: 50% QQQ / 50% SPY.
Strategy 03
Active paper modelQQQ/SPY Trend Switch
A two-sided trend model: own 50% QQQ / 50% SPY in healthy markets, move to short Treasuries in mixed conditions, and use a limited PSQ inverse sleeve only when both trends are clearly broken.
Educational simulation only, not investment advice. PSQ is an inverse ETF with daily-reset behavior; it can behave very differently from simply holding a long-term short position.
Current status
Risk-on
Latest Friday review: Aug 27, 2026
- 2026 paper value
- $106,638
- QQQ vs 200-day
- +9.47%
- SPY vs 200-day
- +8.62%
- QQQ 60-day return
- -2.09%
The three positions
Defensive
The trend is mixed: 100% SHY, a short-term Treasury ETF.
Bear mode
Both trends are broken and QQQ momentum is negative: 50% PSQ / 50% SHY.
Rules of record
Every Friday, compare QQQ and SPY with their own 200-day averages. Above the average means the long-term trend is healthy; below it means the trend is broken.
Bear mode also requires QQQ to be lower than it was 60 trading days earlier. This extra filter tries to avoid using the inverse ETF during a brief dip.
Historical record
Weekly trend backtests
Each calendar year starts independently with $100,000. Select a year to see every Friday decision.
Model return
+7.59%
Ending value
$107,589
QQQ buy and hold
+17.89%
50/50 QQQ + SPY
+15.68%
Allocation switches
2
2026 Friday decision journal
| Review date | QQQ close | QQQ vs 200-day | SPY vs 200-day | Total portfolio | Mode | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2026 | $612 | +10.03% | +9.45% | $100,000 | Risk-on | Held |
| Jan 9, 2026 | $625 | +11.76% | +10.64% | $101,901 | Risk-on | Held |
| Jan 16, 2026 | $620 | +10.06% | +9.66% | $101,285 | Risk-on | Held |
| Jan 23, 2026 | $621 | +9.64% | +8.72% | $101,226 | Risk-on | Held |
| Jan 30, 2026 | $620 | +8.62% | +8.42% | $101,358 | Risk-on | Held |
| Feb 6, 2026 | $608 | +5.71% | +7.51% | $100,262 | Risk-on | Held |
| Feb 13, 2026 | $601 | +3.74% | +5.53% | $98,983 | Risk-on | Held |
| Feb 20, 2026 | $607 | +4.48% | +6.30% | $100,107 | Risk-on | Held |
| Feb 27, 2026 | $606 | +3.68% | +5.25% | $99,731 | Risk-on | Held |
| Mar 6, 2026 | $598 | +2.01% | +2.79% | $98,120 | Risk-on | Held |
| Mar 13, 2026 | $592 | +0.60% | +0.90% | $96,890 | Risk-on | Held |
| Mar 20, 2026 | $581 | -1.68% | -1.21% | $94,969 | Bear mode | Switched |
| Mar 27, 2026 | $562 | -5.06% | -3.63% | $96,581 | Bear mode | Held |
| Apr 10, 2026 | $610 | +2.65% | +2.80% | $92,783 | Risk-on | Switched |
| Apr 17, 2026 | $648 | +8.58% | +7.08% | $97,746 | Risk-on | Held |
| Apr 24, 2026 | $663 | +10.63% | +7.28% | $99,146 | Risk-on | Held |
| May 1, 2026 | $673 | +11.82% | +7.89% | $100,384 | Risk-on | Held |
| May 8, 2026 | $710 | +17.34% | +10.00% | $104,358 | Risk-on | Held |
| May 15, 2026 | $708 | +16.25% | +9.78% | $104,289 | Risk-on | Held |
| May 22, 2026 | $717 | +16.94% | +10.26% | $105,384 | Risk-on | Held |
| May 29, 2026 | $738 | +19.70% | +11.46% | $107,701 | Risk-on | Held |
| Jun 5, 2026 | $704 | +13.56% | +8.21% | $103,884 | Risk-on | Held |
| Jun 12, 2026 | $721 | +15.51% | +8.43% | $105,407 | Risk-on | Held |
| Jun 26, 2026 | $707 | +12.03% | +6.14% | $103,598 | Risk-on | Held |
| Jul 10, 2026 | $726 | +13.96% | +9.24% | $106,818 | Risk-on | Held |
| Jul 17, 2026 | $695 | +8.73% | +7.19% | $103,726 | Risk-on | Held |
| Jul 24, 2026 | $684 | +6.59% | +6.26% | $102,584 | Risk-on | Held |
| Jul 31, 2026 | $688 | +6.86% | +7.12% | $103,425 | Risk-on | Held |
| Aug 7, 2026 | $723 | +11.80% | +10.45% | $107,883 | Risk-on | Held |
| Aug 14, 2026 | $731 | +12.55% | +10.47% | $108,705 | Risk-on | Held |
| Aug 21, 2026 | $713 | +9.47% | +8.62% | $106,638 | Risk-on | Held |
Historical adjusted-close data snapshot: Yahoo Finance chart API historical adjusted-close data. Friday review and close-based rebalance with 0.10% modeled one-way slippage. PSQ has daily-reset inverse behavior; this is a historical ETF simulation, not a theoretical index short.